Anthropic Opens Its Books: $16 Billion in Sales, an $80 Billion Loss, and a Computing Bill That Could Hit $750 Billion
For years, anyone trying to judge Anthropic had to rely on
leaks, funding rounds and educated guesses. That’s changing. A draft of the
company’s IPO prospectus, known as an S-1, has been reviewed by The Wall Street
Journal, and it offers the clearest picture yet of how the Claude maker makes
money, how much it spends, and what keeps its lawyers up at night.
The short version: the growth is real, the losses look
scary, and the spending is on a scale few companies have ever attempted.
Growth that’s hard to believe
Start with the headline number. Anthropic brought in $16.3
billion in revenue in the first half of 2026. In the same six months last year,
it made $1.1 billion.
That’s roughly fifteen times more in a single year. And it
didn’t slow down after June. Anthropic separately told potential investors that
it earned $16.8 billion in the third quarter alone, about 45% more than the
quarter before. The company also said that quarter showed adjusted
profitability and positive free cash flow, though “adjusted” profit isn’t the
same as profit under standard accounting rules.
The $80.7 billion loss, explained
Then comes the number that will grab the headlines: a net
loss of $80.7 billion in the first half of the year, up from about $13 billion
a year earlier.
It sounds alarming, but most of it isn’t money that actually
left the bank. About $72 billion came from an accounting charge linked to
changes in the value of convertible notes and other financing tools the company
used to raise early capital. As Anthropic’s valuation shot up, the value of
those instruments did too, and accounting rules require that to show up as a
loss.
Take that charge out, and the remaining loss is closer to
$8.7 billion. Still big, but a very different story.
The real headline: the computing bill
If there’s one number that explains Anthropic’s business,
it’s this one.
In the first six months of 2026, the company spent nearly $9
billion on computing power and infrastructure. That’s more than the $7.3
billion it spent in all of 2025.
And that’s just what’s already been spent. Looking ahead,
Anthropic has signed roughly $450 billion in cloud agreements running over the
next seven to ten years, and most of them can’t be cancelled. The biggest
pieces:
- About
$111 billion with Google Cloud
- About
$110 billion with Amazon Web Services
- About
$31 billion with Microsoft
On top of that, it has deals worth up to $86 billion with
smaller providers like Nscale and Lambda to rent Nvidia chips, and more than
$160 billion tied to Broadcom arrangements for Google’s custom chips.
Altogether, locked-in commitments are above $600 billion. Add the roughly $150
billion in deals still under negotiation, and the potential total reaches about
$750 billion.
There’s an awkward twist in the filing too. Anthropic says
Amazon, Google and Microsoft increasingly see it as a competitor and haven’t
been willing to give it all the computing capacity it wants. That’s pushed the
company toward third-party data centres and even more spending.
Two customers, one-fifth of the money
Another detail investors will look at closely: about 20% of
first-half revenue, around $3.26 billion, came from just two customers. The
filing doesn’t name them.
Anthropic expects a small group of large customers to keep
making up a big share of its income. Some major enterprise clients also haven’t
signed long-term contracts. If one of them cuts back or moves to a rival, it
would show up in the numbers quickly.
A risk section unlike any other
Nearly a third of the draft prospectus is about risks, and
some of them read more like science fiction than a stock market filing.
The company warns that its AI models could act in ways
people didn’t intend, including showing self-preserving behaviour or
manipulative responses such as blackmail to avoid being shut down. It says it
could face legal and financial liability for damage caused by its models, from
data security incidents to serious real-world disruptions, and that losses from
a severe AI-related security event could go beyond what its insurance covers.
There are more ordinary risks too: falling AI prices,
competition from open-source models, and data centre projects delayed by power
shortages, land issues or local opposition. And because so much of the
computing spending can’t be cancelled, the bills keep coming even if demand
ever slows.
What it’s worth
Earlier market talk put Anthropic’s possible IPO valuation
as high as $2 trillion. After seeing the latest financials, some investors are
reportedly thinking closer to $1.5 trillion. Neither figure is final, and the
company hasn’t announced a listing date, though reports have pointed to as
early as November.
The filing also offers a small peek at the people running
the company. Dario Amodei and his sister Daniela, the CEO and president, each
earned a base salary of about $655,000 in 2025. Both have pledged to give away
80% of their personal shares, and the company recently set aside 5% of its
stock for a new public benefit fund.
Why this matters beyond Wall Street
Anthropic isn’t just one more tech IPO. It’s the first time
the public gets to see, in detail, what it actually costs to build frontier AI.
And the answer is clear: unbelievably fast growth, paid for with an
unbelievably large bet on computing power.
For Indian readers, there’s a direct link too. Indian IT
companies are increasingly building on top of models like Claude. Infosys, for
example, set up a dedicated centre with Anthropic earlier this year to build
and deploy AI agents for clients. How stable Anthropic’s finances are matters
to the companies building on it.
The big question investors will now have to answer is simple
to ask and hard to settle: can revenue keep growing fast enough to cover a
computing bill measured in hundreds of billions? The S-1 shows Anthropic is
betting yes. The market will soon decide whether it agrees.